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Africa Political and Economic
Strategic Center (Afripol) is foremost a public policy center whose
fundamental objective is to broaden the parameters of public policy
debates in Africa. To advocate, promote and encourage free enterprise,
democracy, sustainable green environment, human rights, conflict resolutions, transparency and probity
in Africa.
Quotations of the Week
AFRICA: The Regional
Impacts of Climate Change (Executive Summary)
Several climate regimes characterize the African continent; the
wet tropical, dry tropical, and alternating wet and dry climates are
the most common. Many countries on the continent are prone to
recurrent droughts; some drought episodes, particularly in southeast
Africa, are associated with El Ni Zo-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. Deterioration in terms of trade,
inappropriate policies, high population growth rates, and lack of
significant investment-coupled with a highly variable climate-have
made it difficult for several countries to develop patterns of
livelihood that would reduce pressure on the natural resource base.
Under the assumption that access to adequate financing is not
provided, Africa is the continent most vulnerable to the impacts of
projected changes because widespread poverty limits adaptation
capabilities.
Ecosystems: In Africa today, tropical forests and
rangelands are under threat from population pressures and systems of
land use. Generally apparent effects of these threats include loss
of biodiversity, rapid deterioration in land cover, and depletion of
water availability through destruction of catchments and aquifers.
Changes in climate will interact with these underlying changes in
the environment, adding further stresses to a deteriorating
situation. A sustained increase in mean ambient temperatures beyond
1 EC
would cause significant changes in forest and rangeland cover;
species distribution, composition, and migration patterns; and biome
distribution. Many organisms in the deserts already are near their
tolerance limits, and some may not be able to adapt further under
hotter conditions. Arid to semi-arid subregions and the grassland
areas of eastern and southern Africa, as well as areas currently
under threat from land degradation and desertification, are
particularly vulnerable. Were rainfall to increase as projected by
some general circulation models (GCMs) in the highlands of east
Africa and equatorial central Africa, marginal lands would become
more productive than they are now. These effects are likely to be
negated, however, by population pressure on marginal forests and
rangelands. Adaptive options include control of deforestation,
improved rangeland management, expansion of protected areas, and
sustainable management of forests.
Hydrology and Water Resources: Of the 19 countries
around the world currently classified as water-stressed, more are in
Africa than in any other region-and this number is likely to
increase, independent of climate change, as a result of increases in
demand resulting from population growth, degradation of watersheds
caused by land-use change, and siltation of river basins. A
reduction in precipitation projected by some GCMs for the Sahel and
southern Africa-if accompanied by high interannual variability-could
be detrimental to the hydrological balance of the continent and
disrupt various water-dependent socioeconomic activities. Variable
climatic conditions may render the management of water resources
more difficult both within and between countries. A drop in water
level in dams and rivers could adversely affect the quality of water
by increasing the concentrations of sewage waste and industrial
effluents, thereby increasing the potential for the outbreak of
diseases and reducing the quality and quantity of fresh water
available for domestic use. Adaptation options include water
harvesting, management of water outflow from dams, and more
efficient water usage.
Agriculture and Food Security: Except in the
oil-exporting countries, agriculture is the economic mainstay in
most African countries, contributing 20-30% of gross domestic
product (GDP) in sub-Saharan Africa and 55% of the total value of
African exports. In most African countries, farming depends entirely
on the quality of the rainy season-a situation that makes Africa
particularly vulnerable to climate change. Increased droughts could
seriously impact the availability of food, as in the Horn of Africa
and southern Africa during the 1980s and 1990s. A rise in mean
winter temperatures also would be detrimental to the production of
winter wheat and fruits that need the winter chill. However, in
subtropical Africa, warmer winters would reduce the incidence of
damaging frosts, making it possible to grow horticultural produce
susceptible to frosts at higher elevations than is possible at
present. Productivity of freshwater fisheries may increase, although
the mix of fish species could be altered. Changes in ocean dynamics
could lead to changes in the migratory patterns of fish and possibly
to reduced fish landings, especially in coastal artisinal fisheries.
Coastal Systems: Several African coastal zones-many of
which already are under stress from population pressure and
conflicting uses-would be adversely affected by sea-level rise
associated with climate change. The coastal nations of west and
central Africa (e.g., Senegal, The Gambia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria,
Cameroon, Gabon, Angola) have low-lying lagoonal coasts that are
susceptible to erosion and hence are threatened by sea-level rise,
particularly because most of the countries in this area have major
and rapidly expanding cities on the coast. The west coast often is
buffeted by storm surges and currently is at risk from erosion,
inundation, and extreme storm events. The coastal zone of east
Africa also will be affected, although this area experiences calm
conditions through much of the year. However, sea-level rise and
climatic variation may reduce the buffer effect of coral and patch
reefs along the east coast, increasing the potential for erosion. A
number of studies indicate that a sizable proportion of the northern
part of the Nile delta will be lost through a combination of
inundation and erosion, with consequent loss of agricultural land
and urban areas. Adaptation measures in African coastal zones are
available but would be very costly, as a percentage of GDP, for many
countries. These measures could include erection of sea walls and
relocation of vulnerable human settlements and other socioeconomic
facilities.
Human Settlement, Industry, and Transportation: The
main challenges likely to face African populations will emanate from
extreme climate events such as floods (and resulting landslides in
some areas), strong winds, droughts, and tidal waves. Individuals
living in marginal areas may be forced to migrate to urban areas
(where infrastructure already is approaching its limits as a result
of population pressure) if the marginal lands become less productive
under new climate conditions. Climate change could worsen current
trends in depletion of biomass energy resources. Reduced stream
flows would cause reductions in hydropower production, leading to
negative effects on industrial productivity and costly relocation of
some industrial plants. Management of pollution, sanitation, waste
disposal, water supply, and public health, as well as provision of
adequate infrastructure in urban areas, could become more difficult
and costly under changed climate conditions.
Human Health: Africa is expected to be at risk
primarily from increased incidences of vector-borne diseases and
reduced nutritional status. A warmer environment could open up new
areas for malaria; altered temperature and rainfall patterns also
could increase the incidence of yellow fever, dengue fever,
onchocerciasis, and trypanosomiasis. Increased morbidity and
mortality in subregions where vector-borne diseases increase
following climatic changes would have far-reaching economic
consequences. In view of the poor economic status of most African
nations, global efforts will be necessary to tackle the potential
health effects.
Tourism and Wildlife: Tourism-one of Africa's
fastest-growing industries-is based on wildlife, nature reserves,
coastal resorts, and an abundant water supply for recreation.
Projected droughts and/or reduction in precipitation in the Sahel
and eastern and southern Africa would devastate wildlife and reduce
the attractiveness of some nature reserves, thereby reducing income
from current vast investments in tourism.
Conclusions: The African continent is particularly
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because of factors such
as widespread poverty, recurrent droughts, inequitable land
distribution, and overdependence on rain-fed agriculture. Although
adaptation options, including traditional coping strategies,
theoretically are available, in practice the human, infrastructural,
and economic response capacity to effect timely response actions may
well be beyond the economic means of some countries.
Source: GRID-Arendal on
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)=================================================================
Jean Ping's opening speech for AU climate change summit
25 August 2009, Africa Union
Addis Ababa: The issue of climate change that we have come to
discuss here today is of significant importance to the African
Continent. Scientific projections unequivocally indicate that Africa
will be hit hardest by the impacts of climate change as compared to
other continents. Among other impacts, climate change will
fundamentally affect agricultural productivity, increase the
prevalence of diseases and poverty, increase water stress and
trigger off conflicts and war. Africa's development aspirations are
at stake unless urgent steps are taken to address the problem of
climate change. It goes without saying that although Africa is least
responsible for global warming, it is however suffering from the
impacts of climate change. Therefore, Africa suffers most from the
problem that it has not created!
The climate change challenge before us is enormous. However,
Africa has faced even greater challenges in the past and I am
confident that we shall prevail over this present challenge.
Given that Africa is already suffering from the severe effects of
climate change, we all must urgently seek solutions. Fortunately,
the international community is already engaged in a protracted
process that will hopefully lead to an ambitious and effective
international agreement to combat climate change at Copenhagen,
Denmark in December this year. This is the time for Africa to
aggressively engage in this process to ensure that Africa's concerns
in this new international climate change agreement are effectively
addressed.
Due to the great importance that the African Union attaches to
the issue of climate change, the Heads of State and Government have
recently taken important decisions on climate change.
Your Excellencies, Honourable Ministers, Distinguished Delegates,
Ladies and Gentlemen, permit me at this stage to mention the
important decisions on climate change that the African Union has
taken in the recent past:
1. The 12th Ordinary Session of the African Union Assembly of
Heads of State and Government in February 2009, held in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia adopted a historic decision on climate change the key
elements of which include:
a)That the global carbon trading mechanisms that are expected to
emerge from international negotiations on climate change should give
Africa an opportunity to demand and get compensation for the damage
to its economy caused by global warming and underlines in this
regard the fact that despite contributing virtually nothing to
global warming Africa has been one of the primary victims of its
consequences.
b)That Africa needs to be represented by one delegation, which is
empowered to negotiate on behalf of all Member States, with the
mandate to ensure that resource flow to Africa is not reduced. The
AU Commission was mandated to work out modalities of such
representation.
2. The 13th Ordinary Session of African Union Assembly of Heads
of State and Government held in Sirte, Libya in July, 2009 took
another important and historic decision and established the
Conference of African Heads of State and Government on Climate
Change (CAHOSCC) comprising of the following:
The Chairperson of the African Union;
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia;
The Republic of Algeria;
The Republic of Congo;
The Republic of Kenya;
The Republic of Mauritius;
The Republic of Mozambique;
The Republic of Nigeria;
The Republic of Uganda;
The Chairperson of the African Ministerial Conference on
Environment;
The Chairperson of the African Union Commission; and
Technical Negotiators on climate change from Member states.
Another key element of the 13th Ordinary Session of African Union
Assembly of Heads of State and Government held in Sirte, Libya in
July, 2009 is that the Assembly mandated CAHOSCC, all AU Ambassadors
and African negotiators from member States attending the negotiation
process towards the 15th Conference of Parties (COP 15) to make use
of the approved African common position on climate change.
Your Excellencies, Honourable Ministers, Distinguished Delegates,
Ladies and Gentlemen, you will all agree with me that the decisions
that I have just mentioned signify a fundamental shift in the
collective policy and practice of African States towards
international negotiations on climate change.
First and foremost, the decisions articulate a key political
message that should inform the content of Africa's common position
on key climate change agenda items that are under negotiation.
Secondly, Africa will henceforth be represented by one delegation
at international meetings on climate change. The Conference of
African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC)
will spearhead Africa's negotiations on climate change.
I now wish to take this opportunity to thank all our technical
experts on climate change from all across Africa for the
achievements they have registered in their endeavours over the
course of years. I believe that CAHOSCC will build from these very
achievements to move the process forward to ensure that our work
proceeds in a coordinated and consistent manner.
It is the expectation of the AU Commission that this meeting will
produce the first-ever AU-Summit sanctioned key political messages
on climate change from Africa, which will be widely distributed in
the continent and throughout the World. This output will be informed
by various political processes on climate change taking place in the
continent. Secondly, there will be a close alignment of technical
positions being negotiated by the African Group with the political
messages from the continent, especially from the CAHOSCC.
Te outcome of this meeting will inform the deliberations of the
CAHOSCC meeting being planned on the sidelines of the Special Summit
in Tripoli, Libya on the 31st August 2009. Hence your deliberations
this afternoon is very important. I am sure that CAHOSCC will
appreciate the quality of the report that you will present to it.
At this juncture, I take this opportunity to declare the Meeting of
the Representatives of the Conference of African Heads of State and
Government on Climate Change (CAHOSCC) and the African Experts on
climate change open so that we can turn our attention to important
issues on our agenda.
I thank you and wish you happy and fruitful deliberations!
* OPENING STATEMENT BY H.E DR. JEAN PING, CHAIRPERSON OF THE
AFRICAN UNION COMMISSION, AT THE MEETING OF THE REPRESENTATIVES OF
THE CONFERENCE OF AFRICAN HEADS OF STATE AND GOVERNMENT ON CLIMATE
CHANGE (CAHOSCC) AND AFRICAN LEAD EXPERTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE; AUGUST
24, 2009 ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA
AFRICA : ON THE ROAD TO
ECONOMIC SERFDOM
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Governor Bill Richardson: REVIEW ON AFRICA'S
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(L-R) Bill
Richardson & Founder of Afripol, Emeka Chiakwelu at Houston World Affairs Council
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